What is Trading Sentiment Analysis?

Trading Sentiment Analysis measures market mood using real positioning data from retail traders. It shows the percentage split between long positions (bets on rising prices) and short positions (bets on falling prices). This data makes market psychology measurable. Extreme positioning is particularly valuable: when over 75% of traders are long, for example, this can be a contrarian signal for an upcoming correction — because according to ESMA, 70 to 80 percent of retail traders lose money long-term.

How does Sentmo work?

Sentmo aggregates daily long/short positioning from retail traders at ESMA-regulated CFD brokers for 8 instruments: US30, NASDAQ, S&P500, DAX, Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, and GBP/USD. The data is displayed as a percentage split. Additionally, Sentmo calculates the 24-hour change — how much the positioning has shifted since the previous day. This change rate is the most important value because it shows which direction the crowd is moving. The dashboard auto-refreshes every 15 minutes.

Which instruments are analyzed?

Sentmo covers 8 of the most important trading instruments: four stock indices (US30/Dow Jones, NASDAQ 100, SPX500/S&P 500, GER30/DAX), one commodity (Gold/XAU/USD), and three currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD). This selection covers the most liquid and heavily traded markets where retail sentiment data is particularly meaningful. Additional instruments are planned.

Yes, the sentiment dashboard is completely free and requires no registration. There are no hidden costs and no paywall for the daily sentiment data. Sentmo plans to offer paid premium tools in the future — such as a Trading Co-Pilot, Performance Tracking, and a Backtesting Engine — but the core sentiment data will remain free permanently.

How often is the data updated?

Sentiment data is updated every 15 minutes. The dashboard automatically polls for new values in the background — you don't need to manually refresh. Alongside current values, you always see the 24-hour change showing how positioning has shifted since the previous day. Large shifts (over 4 percentage points difference between long and short change) are visually highlighted.

What does it mean when many traders are long?

When a high percentage of retail traders are positioned long — for example over 70% — it means the majority is betting on rising prices. For experienced traders, this is often a contrarian signal: extreme positioning suggests possible trend reversals. The reason: according to ESMA data, 70 to 80 percent of retail traders lose money long-term. When nearly everyone is positioned in one direction, there are no new buyers left on that side — and the market tends to correct in the opposite direction.

Sentmo is built for daytraders and active traders who want to use sentiment data as an additional signal in their decision-making process. The data is especially valuable for contrarian strategies — approaches that trade against the majority positioning. Basic trading knowledge (technical analysis, risk management, position sizing) is recommended. Sentmo does not provide trading recommendations — interpretation of the data is up to the trader.

Where does Sentmo get its data?

The data comes from ESMA-regulated CFD brokers who are legally required to publish their client loss rates. Sentmo aggregates the publicly available long/short positioning from these brokers. The data reflects the actual positioning of retail traders — no surveys, no estimates, no algorithmic extrapolations. Every displayed value is based on real open positions.

What tools is Sentmo planning?

Sentmo is being built into a full trading platform. Currently in development are a Trading Co-Pilot (AI-powered assistant delivering contextual sentiment analysis) and Performance Tracking (automatic evaluation of your trading results with pattern detection and equity curve). Also planned is a Backtesting Engine for testing strategies against historical sentiment data. Timelines are communicated in the Roadmap section on the homepage.

Mean Reversion: Trading Back to the Average

What is Mean Reversion?

Mean reversion is a trading strategy based on the tendency of prices to return to their average after extreme movements. If an instrument deviates too far upward, it will likely correct. If too far downward, it will likely rise.

This strategy pairs perfectly with sentiment data — because extreme positioning IS an extreme deviation from the normal state.

Measuring "Too Far"

Bollinger Bands

20 SMA +/- 2 standard deviations. Price touching the upper band = statistically "overbought." Lower band = "oversold."

RSI

Measures whether an instrument is overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) relative to its own recent price movements. RSI extremes often correlate with sentiment extremes.

Sentiment as Mean Reversion Indicator

Each instrument has a "normal" positioning range on Sentmo (e.g., US30: 55-62% long). When positioning deviates significantly, the probability of reversion increases.

The Process

Determine normal values by observing positioning over 2-4 weeks

Identify significant deviations (e.g., US30 at 78% long vs. normal 55-62%)

Seek technical confirmation (Bollinger Band touch, RSI extreme, S/R level)

Entry on reversal candle, stop beyond the extreme, target at the 20 SMA

When Mean Reversion Fails

In strong trends, instruments can stay "overbought" for months. Use ADX as filter: ADX > 25 = trending market (avoid mean reversion). ADX < 20 = ranging market (ideal). News-driven moves create new equilibriums where the old average is irrelevant.

The Triple Confirmation Setup

Price at Bollinger Band extreme + RSI above 70 or below 30 + Sentiment extreme on Sentmo (>70% on one side). This triple confirmation produces the highest-probability mean reversion trades.